A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has got something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
